Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
127 Colgate 29.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 13 - 5 +2.5      +3.4 82 -1.0 194 66.4 241 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 Bucknell 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 7 +0.2      -0.1 179 +0.2 155 74.9 52 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 American 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1.9      -0.5 201 -1.3 203 66.3 245 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Boston University 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2.5      +0.2 168 -2.7 247 66.7 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Loyola Maryland 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -3.0      -0.1 177 -2.9 255 71.1 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 Lehigh 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -3.6      +0.6 152 -4.2 293 76.9 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Army 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.6      -3.8 282 -0.9 192 73.5 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Lafayette 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -5.4      -0.3 188 -5.1 315 71.0 119 0.0 1 0.0 1
267 Navy 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -5.8      -3.9 286 -1.9 225 67.1 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 Holy Cross 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -9.0      -5.9 323 -3.1 259 61.3 335 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.7 39.9 20.4 12.9 9.2 6.5 4.4 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.5
Bucknell 3.6 23.5 18.5 14.7 11.7 9.3 7.8 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.4
American 4.5 14.2 14.1 13.5 12.3 11.7 9.9 8.5 7.6 5.2 3.1
Boston University 4.8 11.6 13.0 12.7 12.2 11.8 10.3 10.0 7.9 6.4 4.1
Loyola Maryland 5.0 9.9 11.8 12.2 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.5 8.8 7.4 4.9
Lehigh 5.4 7.9 10.0 10.8 11.6 12.0 11.2 11.0 10.3 8.9 6.2
Army 5.8 5.4 8.2 9.6 10.5 11.2 11.5 11.6 12.1 11.2 8.8
Lafayette 6.2 4.4 6.8 7.6 9.6 11.1 11.6 12.8 12.8 12.7 10.7
Navy 6.4 4.2 5.9 7.2 8.7 10.5 11.4 12.5 13.4 14.1 12.1
Holy Cross 7.8 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.2 8.1 11.0 14.6 19.4 29.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.2 5.8 8.0 9.5 12.6 13.0 12.9 11.6 8.9 5.5 2.2
Bucknell 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.7 5.4 7.2 9.0 10.2 11.5 11.8 11.0 9.6 7.4 5.1 2.4 0.7
American 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.4 6.4 7.7 9.5 10.9 11.5 11.0 10.1 8.2 6.7 4.5 2.3 1.2 0.3
Boston University 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.3 7.1 9.0 10.4 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.4 7.7 5.6 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2
Loyola Maryland 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.9 7.8 9.6 10.4 10.7 11.1 10.1 9.3 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1
Lehigh 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.2 7.0 8.9 9.9 10.7 11.6 10.5 9.2 7.9 6.0 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1
Army 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 6.7 8.8 9.6 10.8 11.1 10.6 9.6 8.5 6.4 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Lafayette 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.0 7.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 11.3 10.5 8.9 6.9 5.4 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Navy 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.4 5.7 8.3 10.2 11.2 11.3 11.0 9.9 8.3 6.5 5.0 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 6 - 12 2.1 5.3 8.9 11.8 12.5 12.9 11.7 10.1 8.0 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 39.9% 29.6 8.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
Bucknell 23.5% 15.9 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
American 14.2% 9.2 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boston University 11.6% 7.0 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 9.9% 6.1 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 7.9% 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 5.4% 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 4.4% 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Navy 4.2% 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 29.4% 29.1% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 4.2 6.6 7.4 6.2 3.0 70.6 0.5%
Bucknell 18.1% 17.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.1 4.9 3.9 2.3 81.9 0.3%
American 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.9 3.2 2.6 88.4 0.0%
Boston University 9.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.8 2.8 90.1 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 9.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.9 2.8 91.0 0.0%
Lehigh 7.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.2 92.7 0.0%
Army 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.9 94.8 0.0%
Lafayette 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 95.5 0.0%
Navy 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 95.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 98.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 29.4% 1.5% 28.7% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 18.1% 1.0% 17.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 11.6% 1.2% 11.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.9% 1.3% 9.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 9.0% 1.4% 8.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 7.3% 1.2% 6.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 5.2% 1.0% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 4.5% 1.1% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 4.1% 0.9% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 95.1% 1.0 4.9 94.7 0.4
2nd Round 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0